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Sunday, July 14, 2013

My Life as a Turkey


My Life as a Turkey

      In the movie, My Life as a Turkey, we learn about how a man finds 16 turkey eggs at his door and how he takes them in his care and raises them. This man, Joe Hutto, gets emotionally attached to these turkeys. From this movie, I’ve that you should be grateful for everything you have.
      One day, a man walks out of his house and finds 16 eggs in a basket at his door steps. He takes them in and puts them under an incubator .Day later, the eggs hatch and the turkeys come out. They see his face and recognize him as their mother. He takes good care of them until one day, he left them alone for a brief second, and when he got back, one of the baby turkeys was half way in a snake’s mouth. He and all the other turkeys were terrified.
Then when the snake tried to get out, it couldn’t because of the turkey it swallowed. At that moment, Joe Hutto realized he had to be with those turkeys 24/7.
      Later on Joe Hutto gets more used to him and turkeys adapt better to him. Joe Hutto and the turkeys become like one big family. He was a real mother to these turkeys. This would be an unforgettable event for Joe Hutto, the turkeys, and everybody who admired this video.
        From my point of view of this movie, it shows how two different living things come together and act like one. Joe Hutto showed that turkeys are social, curious, affectionate, playful and smart. These turkeys were smart enough to know what predators to stay away from. I give this movie 5 stars because of its amazement.

Turkey and Secularism


Ezgi Çufadar                                                                                                                                   MARCH25,2011

Turkey and Secularism

Since the first application of membership of Turkey to the European Union, discussions haven’t negotiated to a solution.   While some members of EU support the membership of Turkey, some of them don’t. Therefore, Turkey has started to break through for the EU accession period and made lots of changes on public and state sphere. However, according to the Samuel Huntington these changes are meaningless for the EU accession period because of the religion of Turkey which called Islam. He explains his idea with these words:   “characterization of Muslims as a single group of traditional and possibly fundamentalist believers, antagonistic to the West” (1). According to these words, he clearly described the Muslim countries as an anti democratic, strict, fundamentalist and enemy of West; therefore he mentioned that Turkey as a Muslim country can never be a member of EU. However, according to the book, his ideas are wrong and in this paper I will analyze the secular states possibilities and political Islam.

Secularism which means that separation of religion from politic has started with the
Rescript of Gülhane in 1839 which is done for get on European countries’s good side and in this way, load of changes have been started for the movement of democracy by the Ottoman Empire. For instance, they gave rights to people who have heresy ideas about god and women who have fewest rights in the society. Moreover secularism movements didn’t finished. According to the early Turkish Republican period government who is Kemalist, for the sake of democracy, politic shouldn’t come into religion and religion shouldn’t come into politic. Because of this secular idea, government took very hard decisions like, forbidding the Islamic figures in the public area like Islamic dresses. Thus, religion was pushed the private life of society. In addition military was appointed as guardians of secularism. However, in 2004 AKP which is the ruling party in Turkey, has started to use a European, enlighten language to support the religion and public support them too. Therefore, they mixed the two parts of political religion landscape; modernist and traditionalist. Thus they create the moderate Islam which does not include fundamentalist political religion aspect like Iran.
As a conclusion, Turkey has tried to join the European Union which is a political and economic union of twenty-seven
member states which are located in primarily in Europe(2) . And this cause to load of arguments because of the politic and cultural characteristics of Turkey. Moreover, according to Samuel Huntington who is an American political scientist and the owner of Clash of Civilizations theory, Turkey can never be a part of EU which is a democratic and enlighten union because of Islam and describes the impossibilities of that with these words: “it is exactly between these two blocs that armed conflict will increasingly occur”(3)   and describes the relationship between Islam and West as a “synonymous for separate civilizations that are basically incompatible”(4). However, the book called The European Union, Turkey and Islam against his ideas and shows the possibilities of secularism in Turkey by giving specific examples from the history of secularism in Turkey.

References:
(1)” The European Union, Turkey and Islam, p. 45, 2004”
(2) "Oxford Dictionary of English: European 5 b. spec. Designating a developing series of economic and political unions between certain countries of western (and later also eastern) Europe from 1952 onwards, as European Economic Community, European Community, European Union.".
(3)(4)” The European Union, Turkey and Islam, p.45, 2004”
Ezgi Çufadar                                                                                                                                   MARCH25,2011

Turkey and Secularism

Since the first application of membership of Turkey to the European Union, discussions haven’t negotiated to a solution.   While some members of EU support the membership of Turkey, some of them don’t. Therefore, Turkey has started to break through for the EU accession period and made lots of changes on public and state sphere. However, according to the Samuel Huntington these changes are meaningless for the EU accession period because of the religion of Turkey which called Islam. He explains his idea with these words:   “characterization of Muslims as a single group of traditional and possibly fundamentalist believers, antagonistic to the West” (1). According to these words, he clearly described the Muslim countries as an anti democratic, strict, fundamentalist and enemy of West; therefore he mentioned that Turkey as a Muslim country can never be a member of EU. However, according to the book, his ideas are wrong and in this paper I will analyze the secular states possibilities and political Islam.

Secularism which means that separation of religion from politic has started with the
Rescript of Gülhane in 1839 which is done for get on European countries’s good side and in this way, load of changes have been started for the movement of democracy by the Ottoman Empire. For instance, they gave rights to people who have heresy ideas about god and women who have fewest rights in the society. Moreover secularism movements didn’t finished. According to the early Turkish Republican period government who is Kemalist, for the sake of democracy, politic shouldn’t come into religion and religion shouldn’t come into politic. Because of this secular idea, government took very hard decisions like, forbidding the Islamic figures in the public area like Islamic dresses. Thus, religion was pushed the private life of society. In addition military was appointed as guardians of secularism. However, in 2004 AKP which is the ruling party in Turkey, has started to use a European, enlighten language to support the religion and public support them too. Therefore, they mixed the two parts of political religion landscape; modernist and traditionalist. Thus they create the moderate Islam which does not include fundamentalist political religion aspect like Iran.
As a conclusion, Turkey has tried to join the European Union which is a political and economic union of twenty-seven
member states which are located in primarily in Europe(2) . And this cause to load of arguments because of the politic and cultural characteristics of Turkey. Moreover, according to Samuel Huntington who is an American political scientist and the owner of Clash of Civilizations theory, Turkey can never be a part of EU which is a democratic and enlighten union because of Islam and describes the impossibilities of that with these words: “it is exactly between these two blocs that armed conflict will increasingly occur”(3)   and describes the relationship between Islam and West as a “synonymous for separate civilizations that are basically incompatible”(4). However, the book called The European Union, Turkey and Islam against his ideas and shows the possibilities of secularism in Turkey by giving specific examples from the history of secularism in Turkey.

References:
(1)” The European Union, Turkey and Islam, p. 45, 2004”
(2) "Oxford Dictionary of English: European 5 b. spec. Designating a developing series of economic and political unions between certain countries of western (and later also eastern) Europe from 1952 onwards, as European Economic Community, European Community, European Union.".
(3)(4)” The European Union, Turkey and Islam, p.45, 2004”

Gold and Silver Mining Globally and in Turkey


Calculations based on explorations in numerous mine areas and world gold formation models reveal that Turkey’s gold potential is 6,500 tons. The mine value of this potential is worth $70 billion…
Prof. Dr. Güven Önal
İTÜ (Istanbul Technical University)
Mine Faculty Scientific Study of Ore and Coal Preparation and Evaluation
With soaring gold prices and new landmarks in the technology of processing gold ore, the world gold mining has grown rapidly starting with the 1970s. World gold production has almost doubled in the last 25 years. As a consequence, while explored gold ores are being processed, a period of intense exploration and investment has commenced globally.
From the onset of humanity until today, gold has been used in ornaments and as money. Nowadays, it is used more and more in electronics, communications, laser, optics, aviation and medical industries because of its superior (rare) qualities such as easy workability, non-corrosiveness and conductivity. Since it is non-allergic causing, the medical profession draws on it as well.
GOLD MINING IN THE WORLD
The world’s total processable gold reserves are 42,500 tons and about 65% of this is in the USA, Canada, Australia and S. Africa, which occupy the top places in world gold production. In 2000, $1.09 billion were spent for gold explorations in the world. 49% of this was spent in three advanced countries, the USA, Canada and Australia.
53% of world gold
production takes place in four industrialized countries: the USA, Canada, Australia and S.Africa. Compared to 1980, production has swelled by 13 times in the USA, 18 times in Australia and 3.5 times in Canada. Europe, excluding Russia has an annual gold production of 24 tons, 1% of world production.
India, USA, Saudi Arabia, China and Turkey take up first place in world gold demand. Although Turkey isn’t placed in world gold production rankings, it is fifth in demand.
In all continents of the world, in 24 countries, 2,530 tons of gold was produced in 2002. Additionally, 146 new projects in Canada, USA, South America, Australia, Bulgaria, Greece, S. Africa, other African countries, Armenia, India, Kazakhstan, the Philippines, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are on the brink of becoming investments churning out 425 tons/year. In Turkey’s neighbors, at 3 gold mines in Greece, 2 in Cyprus (Greek Cypriots), 2 in Armenia and 2 in Bulgaria, investments have reached the final stages.
GOLD MINING IN TURKEY
According to present-day written and archeological findings, gold has been produced in Anatolia since 3000 B.C. However, in Turkey, there is now only silver mine production since 1987 and the Ovacık (Bergama) gold mine that started production in 2001. In return, Turkey is one of the world’s largest gold processing and consumption markets. Its annual gold imports are around 200 tons.
In light of recent developments
in world gold mining, our country has caught the attention of foreign investors, both in terms of geological diversity and the availability of the investment environment in the 1980s. Hence, for the first time in the history of our Republic, an opportunity has arisen to make a start in gold mining. Upon the test production of the Ovacık Gold Mine, recognized gold mine companies reassumed explorations in Turkey. There are 9 foreign-capital owned companies that have been carrying out gold mining activities since 2002.
Gold producing foreign companies which came to Turkey subsequent to the change in the Mine Law in 1985 found economic gold deposits. Estimates based on explorations in numerous mine areas and world gold formation models reveal that Turkey’s gold potential is 6,500 tons (Prof. Dr. A. Erler, Turkey’s Gold Potential and Methods to Explore Mine Sources, 1997). The number of gold deposits constituting this potential is presumed to be 267; of these, it is estimated that 13 could contain above 150 tons of gold, 40 between 30 and 150 tons and 214 less than 30 tons.
The worth of Turkey’s unextracted gold potential is approximately $70 billion. Exploration and investment expenditures for production are calculated at $20 billion. The total value-added likely to be brought from this gold potential to our country is at the $300 billion level, expected to employ 100,000 people indirectly. (These values have been taken
from Prof. Dr. Erdoğan Alkin’s report suggesting the quotients of 4.2 for value added and 16.2 for employment.)
SILVER MINING IN TURKEY
The silver mine, producing silver since 1987 by Eti Silver Co. is near Kütahya. In this mine, there are reserves of 22 million tons with an average 180 gr/ton. Annual silver production approximates 90 tons. Produced as granulated, all of the refined silver is consumed by the domestic market.
CURRENT PROJECTS
At the end of explorations by foreign companies, a total of 509 tons of gold and 1,184 tons of silver reserves have been found at the 9 mines illustrated in Table 3. The total value of these mines is $5.832 billion. The value added to the national economy is calculated as: 5.832x4.2= $24.494 billion.
GOLD AND SILVER PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY
The choice of technology in gold mining is subject to the size of the gold particles in the ore and the chemical and physical attributes of the other minerals found in the ore rock. In the event that the gold particles in the ore are dispersed in microscopic dimensions, the method that’s used is dissolving by cyanide (cyanide leach), employed for about 85% of the world gold production.
The production technology used at the Eti Holding Kutahya Gumuşköy enterprise since 1987 is basically similar to the technology found at gold mines such as at the plant in Ovacık. The method involves the processes of breaking and grinding the ore produced
at the mine quarry, dissolving the gold and silver in the ore with cyanide complexes by the leach method and recovery from the dilute phase.
After cyanide leaching, the gold and silver goes from the solid phase to the liquid phase and are recovered by the processes of absorption from the active carbon and desorption. Then with electrowinning, the rich solution is melted into doré bars, a homogeneous mixture of gold, silver and scanty amounts of other metals. Refining takes place through electrowinning of the doré bar.
At the Ovacık Gold Mine, the wastes of sodium cyanide leaching are decomposed into natural compounds at the INCO SO2/Air chemical decomposition unit, then by the ferric sulphate method, the heavy metals found in insignificant amounts in the ore are precipitated, stabilized and are stored in the tailing pond in the form of insoluble compounds. There is no discharge from the tailing pond and the water in the pond is recycled within the plant. Throughout the world, there are about 800 gold and silver producing firms in 24 countries using sodium cyanide leaching, a method which has been in use for over 100 years. The Ovacık gold mine has started test production in May 2001 and has since produced 5.73 tons of gold and 7.23 tons of silver until the end of 2001.
Turkey’s gold capacity is close to the world’s principal gold and silver producers with a potential of 6,500 tons of gold and 100,000 tons of silver.

Outsourcing to Turkey


Canada
Outsourcing Education
in Turkey

Project Managed & Created By
Guardian Capital Group:
f Contents

Imagine a country that is plagued by unqualified teachers, low wages, students that are disinterested in further education, and where over 70% of the female population aged 14 – 19 does not have a primary school diploma. Combine that with the massive student dropout rate, high gender inequality between males and females, and a low adult literacy rate and it is not difficult to predict that Turkey is one of the bottom ranked countries based on education in the European Union. These factors come from a 2009 report from Sabanci University’s Education Reform Initiative and are confirmed once again in the OECD results in 2009-2011. In response, the Ministry of Education put forth significant compulsorily requirements including changing education to a mandatory completion of twelve years of schooling in March 2012 and focusing on increasing female enrollment. These political changes on policies to promote literacy and enrollment rates are encouraging and are welcomed news to our company, Kumon.
Kumon is one of the largest international after-school math and reading enrichment program aimed to improve the motivation and performance of students outside of the classroom environment. Based upon many of the reports and data gathered in this report including
TMISS and PISA, our company is confident that our initial entry into the foreign Turkey market will prove to be both a beneficial and profitable business venture to improving the education and wellbeing of the country. Many factors compliment this business decision such as the market failure of government commitment to funding education and the agglomeration of economic activities centered primarily in only a few major cities. Due to Turkey’s low wages and a large amount of poverty within the population it is difficult to impose the public to bear the costs of entry and operations. To ensure success and long-term sustainability our company wishes to partner with the government of Turkey in order to provide the subsidies required to induce a pareto improvement to education in the country.
This business report aims to persuade the Turkey government to make contributions in our project, to help our investors to understand the risks and challenges involved to properly value and discount this business venture, and to provide information to our vital shareholders.

“The roots of education are bitter, but the fruit is sweet,” Aristotle once said. What happens though if the customers (both the parents and the children) do not care how sweet the fruit lying at the end of the road is? What if the producers (teachers) did not care about the quality of the fruit as long as
it was edible? Even worse, what occurs when the land owners (government) does not provide enough land and water to nurture and grow the fruit? If these metaphors had an answer it would be the definitive state of Turkey’s education. Only 42% of total adults aged 25-34 and 31% aged 25-64 have received some level of upper secondary education (Exhibit 1). The lack of upper education is due to the large portion of the population working blue-collar jobs and farmers that make up a majority of Turkey’s economy. As seen in the preceding external environment analysis, Turkey
Kumon currently operates in 47 countries with a strong presence already established in Europe through Germany, Spain, Greece, and Ireland. Kumon overcomes language barriers by hiring bilingual teaching professionals or training local teachers with a passion for education. While Kumon does not substitute education learned from a properly facilitated education program it enhances and supplements it to a higher degree to promote aptitude towards learning. This method allows our company to not have a conflict of interest with current established education institutions and

Turkey has made significant grounds on political policies on education. Turkey’s current application to accede into the European Union imposes that Turkey has to follow the Copenhagen Criteria which has several economic and political
requirements. In this criterion, Turkey has to acquire the specific level of human and physical capital including the sustaining an appropriate level of education, research, and learning infrastructure. Turkey’s government has taken significant steps towards education reform in the last decade in order to comply including the aforementioned twelve years of compulsory education. In 2004, the government revised the much needed outdated curriculum program under the Teaching Programs Reform. (Öztürk)
The Copenhagen Criteria also requires Turkey to migrate into a market economy resulting in free market entry and exiting.
The criterion also forces Turkey to establish an adequate legal system including enforcing contracts and protection of property rights.

Kumon will employ a transnational multi-domestic strategy in order to account for the need of higher global efficiency and local responsiveness. Kumon will direct the
Quick References
http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/topics/education/
TMISS
http://timssandpirls.bc.edu/timss2011/downloads/TIMSS2011_Enc-v1.pdf
PISA 2009
http://www.turkishpolicy.com/dosyalar/files/nihan_aytug.pdf
Teaching Programs Reform 2004
http://www.e-iji.net/dosyalar/iji_2011_2_7.pdf

United Nations Data Base UNCDP

Source: OECD (2011), Education at a Glance 2011, Table A1.2a, available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932462225

Candidate Country for Membership – Turkey


Turkey's application to accede to the European Union was made on 14 April 1987. Turkey has been an associate member of the European Union (EU) and its predecessors since 1963. After the ten founding members, Turkey was one of the first countries to become a member of theCouncil of Europe in 1949, and was also a founding member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1961 and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in 1973. The country has also been an associate member of the Western European Union since 1992, and is a part of the "Western Europe" branch of the Western European and Others Group (WEOG) at the United Nations. Turkey signed a Customs Union agreement with the EU in 1995 and was officially recognised as a candidate for full membership on 12 December 1999, at the Helsinki summit of the European Council. Negotiations were started on 3 October 2005, and the process, should it be in Turkey's favour, is likely to take at least a decade to complete. The membership bid has become a major controversy of the ongoing enlargement of the European Union.
Background:After the Ottoman Empire's collapse following World War I, Turkish revolutionaries
led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk emerged victorious in the Turkish War of Independence, establishing the modern Turkish Republic as it exists today. Atatürk, President of Turkey, implemented a series of reforms, including secularization and industrialization, intended to "Europeanize" or Westernize the country.] During World War II, Turkey remained neutral until February 1945, when it joined the Allies. The country took part in the Marshall Plan of 1947, became a member of the Council of Europe in 1949, and a member ofNATO in 1952. During the Cold War, Turkey allied itself with the United States and Western Europe. The Turkish expert Meltem Ahıska outlines the Turkish position vis-à-vis Europe, explaining how “Europe has been an object of desire as well as a source of frustration for Turkish national identity in a long and strained history”.
1960s–1990s
The country first applied for associate membership in the European Economic Community in 1959, and on 12 September 1963 signed the "Agreement Creating An Association Between The Republic of Turkey and the European Economic Community", also known as the Ankara Agreement. This agreement came into effect the following year on 12 December 1964. The Ankara Agreement
sought to integrate Turkey into a customs union with the EEC whilst acknowledging the final goal of membership.[7] In November 1970, a further protocol called the "Additional Protocol" established a timetable for the abolition of tariffs and quotas on goods traded between Turkey and the EEC.[7]
On 14 April 1987, Turkey submitted its application for formal membership into the European Community. The European Commission responded in December 1989 by confirming Ankara’s eventual membership but also by deferring the matter to more favorable times, citing Turkey’s economic and political situation, as well its poor relations with Greece and the conflict with Cyprus as creating an unfavorable environment with which to begin negotiations.[11] This position was confirmed again in the Luxembourg European Council of 1997 in which accession talks were started with central and eastern European states and Cyprus, but not Turkey. During the 1990s, Turkey proceeded with a closer integration with the European Union by agreeing to a customs union in 1995. Moreover, the Helsinki European Council of 1999 proved a milestone as the EU recognised Turkey as a candidate on equal footing with other potential candidates.

Emerging Opportunities in the Turkey's Cards and Payments Industry: Market Size, Trends and Drivers, Strategies, Products and Competitive Landscape


[pic]

Aarkstore.com announces, a new market research report is available in its vast collection:

Emerging Opportunities in the Turkey's Cards and Payments Industry: Market Size, Trends and Drivers, Strategies, Products and Competitive Landscape
http://www.aarkstore.com/reports/Emerging-Opportunities-in-the-Turkey-s-Cards-and-Payments-Industry-Market-Size-Trends-and-Drivers-Strategies-Products-and-Competitive-Landscape-238820.html

Synopsis

The report provides market analysis, information and insights into Turkey's cards and payments industry, including:
• Current and forecast values for each segment of Turkey's cards and payments industry including debit cards, credit cards, prepaid cards and charge cards
• Comprehensive analysis of the industry’s market attractiveness and future growth areas
• Analysis of various market drivers and regulations governing Turkey's cards and payments industry
• Detailed analysis of the marketing strategies adopted for selling prepaid cards used by various bankers and other institutions in the market
• Comprehensive analysis of consumer attitudes and their buying preferences for cards
• Competitive landscape of Turkey's cards and payments industry

Summary

The cards and payments industry in Turkey demonstrated robust growth during the review period (2008–2012). In terms of volume, the industry grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.58%, to reach 144.5 million cards in 2012. The increasing acceptance of cards in retail outlets, growing consumer preference for cashless transactions and improved banking infrastructure has contributed to the review period growth. The industry
size in terms of volume is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.38% over the forecast period (2013–2017), to reach 183.8 million cards in 2017. While cash continues to be an important part of the overall payments system, it is increasingly being displaced by the cards payments channel. To capitalize on consumer preferences, banks and card issuers have adopted various marketing and pricing strategies to encourage customers to increase card payments. Common strategies include offers, product discounts, reward points and insurance coverage. A complete cashless payment system is planned by 2023. To encourage consumers to opt for card payments, the Interbank Card Center of Turkey (BKM) launched the ‘Bye Bye Cash’ campaign across media and social networking sites to promote card payments as a more effective payment method. With campaigns such and initiatives from the Turkish authorities, an increase in card transaction volume is projected to increase over the forecast period.

Scope

• This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Turkey's cards and payments industry
• It provides current values for Turkey's cards and payments industry for 2012 and forecast figures for 2017
• It details the different macroeconomic, infrastructural, consumer and business drivers affecting Turkey's cards and payments industry
• It outlines the current regulatory framework in the industry
• It details the marketing strategies used by various bankers and other institutions
• It profiles the major banks in Turkey's cards and payments industry

Reasons To Buy

• Make strategic business decisions using historic and forecast market data related to Turkey's
cards and payments industry and each market within it
• Understand the key market trends and growth opportunities within Turkey's cards and payments industry
• Assess the competitive dynamics in Turkey's cards and payments industry
• Gain insights into the marketing strategies used for selling various types of cards in Turkey
• Gain insights into key regulations governing Turkey's cards and payment industry

Table Of Contents :

1 Executive Summary
 2 Attractiveness and Future Prospects of Cards and Payments Industry
 3 Analysis of Cards and Payments Industry Drivers
 3.1 Infrastructure Drivers
 3.1.1 Near field communication (NFC)-enabled SIM cards
 3.1.2 Biometric ATMs
 3.1.3 Mobile Wallet
 3.1.4 Technologically enhanced security features
 3.1.5 Growing number of ATMs
 3.1.6 Increasing installation of POSs
 3.2 Business Drivers
 3.2.1 Retail industry dynamics
 3.2.2 Increasing campaigns for cashless payment system
 3.2.3 Growing travel and tourism
 3.2.4 Rising e-commerce sales
 3.2.5 Increasing competition
 3.3 Consumer Drivers
 3.3.1 Increased penetration of technologically literate youth
 3.3.2 Rising per capita annual disposable income
 3.3.3 Urban vs. rural population
 3.3.4 Changing consumer lifestyle and preference for cashless payments
 3.3.5 Significant growth in economically active population
 3.4 Card Fraud Statistics
 3.5 Regulatory Framework
 4 Emerging Consumer Attitudes and Trends
 4.1 Market Segmentation and Targeting
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Eu, Turkey and the World in 2030


It would be extremely short-sighted to view the question of the Turkish membership of the European Union in the framework of a balance sheet for the two parties.

It’s well known that the Turkish membership of the EU will benefit both sides by resolving some of their internal problems. Europe is ageing. Its demographic balance will be against productivity by 2050. The youth bulge of Turkey can provide a vital human resource. Europe needs energy and currently depends on Russian gas lines via Ukraine. Turkey can provide alternatives to Russian gas and to Ukraine for the Russian gas.

It is equally known that Turkey has been consistently involved in a tussle between the military and democracy. Since the European Union is based on the Copenhagen Criteria of democracy and civil liberties, membership can strengthen the Turkish democracy. The European membership can also enable peaceful co-existence between Greece and Turkey. In this balance sheet, trade and investments will account for a small share of huge political, demographic and cultural profit on both sides.

However, to an international observer, the gains that Europe and Turkey will accrue are not significant as compared to the paradigm shifts that may take place in the world politics. Whether one foresees or not, Turkey is emerging as an economic great power of the 21st century. Who had guessed China in the 1970s, India in the 1980s and Brazil
in the 1990s? Within less than 40, 30 and 20 years, these countries are fast emerging as main drivers of the world economy. Those who cannot foresee that Turkey will be a major economy by 2020 or 2030 are making the same mistakes that the observers of China and India made in the 1970s. Until about a decade ago, the Turkish economy was confined to a few business interests in Istanbul. Since the rise of the AK Party earlier this decade, small businessmen and farmers from Anatolia have been empowered. The economic landscape of Turkey is changing, most visibly demonstrated in insecurity felt by the status quo interests. If Turkey continues its economic drive and also manages to emerge at the centre of a network of energy lines, it will be a global player in a couple of decades.

Turkey is also set to be a regional hydro-power. Israel, Palestine Territories and Jordan – the core of the Middle East – face acute shortage of water. The Jordan River is likely to deplete by 2100 due to climate change, according to a recent study. The underground aquifers in the West Bank are being overused. The water crisis that will be faced by Israel, Palestine Territories and Jordan will be much worse than the avoidable conflict they have been involved in the last 60 years. Syria, Iraq and Lebanon have enough water for their own population but they lack infrastructure to generate surplus. In 15-20 years only Turkey will
be in a position to come to the rescue of the entire region, particularly Israel and the Palestine Territories. Thus, the area of the Turkish influence will not be limited to the eastern borders of Anatolia. It will spread all the way to the Gulf.

The European Union has to decide whether it will be in its interests to have Turkey as a member, following its rules and providing bridge to the Arab and Asian regions, or whether it wants to have a superpower on its eastern border. If Europe and Turkey are part of the Union, they will be able to check the United States and Russia. Otherwise, the United States and Russia will play the two against each other and try to maximize their own space in Eurasia. What game Iran will play will depend on Iran’s strength in a couple of decades. However, if Europe, Turkey, the US and Russia are all engaged in a power game, Iran will be tempted to maximize its interests whenever it finds opportunities. On the other hand, if Turkey is part of the European Union and an Arab-Israeli hydropower union, Iran’s maneuvering space will be limited.
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The question of the Turkish membership of the EU is essentially about whether we want a world of great power rivalries or whether we want a world of cooperation and strategic stability. It is also a question whether visionary statesmen should shape the 21st century or whether unemployed young people should determine its future.
It is interesting to note who is supporting the Turkish membership of the European Union and who is opposing it. The supporters include statesmen like Obama and Carl Bildt. The opponents include unemployed young people in France, Germany, the Netherlands and their petty vote catchers.

It would be tragic to seek answers to the big questions of our time on the basis of short term political calculations. The world paid the price of the Paris 1919 conference that enraged Germany, divided the Middle East and ignored colonization. The net loss was 100 million deaths in the bloodiest century in history. Which sane person can ever sleep after reading about the great achievements of the 20th century – massacres by Hitler and Pol Pot, ethnic cleansing in Rwanda, a nuclear arms race and blowing up of ten trillion dollars per decade on arms while 100 million children die on account of malnutrition? Should we congratulate the proponents of a world based on competition for power? Or should we hope that new ways will be found to craft a future that is based on cooperation rather than competition - where the Turkish membership of the European Union is used as one powerful tool to create a collaborative world order? Of course, there would be other tools as well and we should create and use them, but since Turkey is on the cross-roads of continents and civilizations, it is imperative we emphasize its strategic role.